Decarbonisation of passenger light-duty vehicles using spatially resolved TIMES-Ireland Model

Higher spatial resolution is becoming a key component of energy system analysis. Existing multi-regional national scale energy systems optimisation models (ESOMs) facilitate an improved understanding of spatial dynamics. Yet, region-specific characteristics of transport technologies and infrastructures along with consumer heterogeneity have remained under-investigated. The current paper addresses this gap by developing a multi regional transport sector within the system-wide TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM). The transport sector is divided into 26 sub-regions, and each region is characterised by the existing vehicle fleet, public transport availability, scrappage rate, annual mileage, vehicle fuel economy and the corresponding passenger and freight mobility demand. The consumers (car buyers) are disaggregated based on their income level to incorporate a more realistic representation of their behaviour in vehicle purchasing decisions. While TIM ensures carbon neutrality across the whole energy system by mid-century, this study mainly explores the decarbonisation of passenger Light-Duty Vehicles (LDVs). It shows to what extent different measures (i.e, LDV improvements, monetary incentives, modal shift, biofuel obligation, carbon tax and occupancy rate) can contribute to meeting ambitious mitigation targets by 2030. Spatially resolved analysis as the main novelty of this research presents valuable insights into regional electric vehicles (EVs) diffusion and their electricity consumption. The proposed method can be used to address the uncertainty that arises from consumer heterogeneity in the policymaking process. The findings also suggest keeping financial EV incentives until the mid-2020s to meet the ambitious goals. Finally, decarbonisation without demand-side strategies (i.e., controlling the level of private-car-based mobility) seems to be unachievable.

Automated summary

Higher spatial resolution is crucial for energy system analysis. This paper develops a multi-regional transport sector model to investigate decarbonization strategies and measures.