Cardiovascular Diseases Following Breast Cancer Towards a Case-by-Case Assessment Through a Prediction Risk Score Model in 943 Patients

Objectives: To identify patients at high risk of developing cardiovascular disease through the identification of risk factors among a large population of breast cancer women and to assess the performance of Abdel-Qadir risk prediction model score. Materials and Methods: The medical records and baseline characteristics of all patients/tumors diagnosed with breast cancer from 2010 to 2011 in a French comprehensive cancer center were collected. Cardiovascular events were defined as arterial and cardiac events, atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism occurring during the 5-year follow-up. Abdel-Qadir multivariable prediction model for major adverse cardiovascular events were used with the concordance index (c-index) score to assess calibration by comparing predicted risks to observed probabilities. Results: Among the 943 breast cancer patients included, 83 patients (8.8%) presented with at least one cardiovascular event, leading to a cumulative incidence of 0.07 at 5 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.055-0.088). The cumulative incidence of atrial fibrillation at 5 years was 0.01 (95% CI, 0.005-0.018). Factors associated with the occurrence of cardiovascular events were pre-existing cardiovascular diseases including high blood pressure (hazard ratio [HR]=1.78, 95% CI=1.07-2.97, P=0.028), acute coronary syndrome (HR=5.28, 95% CI: 2.16-12.88, P<0.05) and grade 3 Scarff-Blool-Richardson (HR=1.95, 95% CI: 1.21-3.15, P=0.006). With a c-index inferior to 0.7, the Abdel-Qadir score was not fully validated in our population. Conclusion: These findings call for the assessment of the performance of risk prediction models such as Abdel-Qadir score coupled with other factors such as Scarff Bloom and Richardson grading in order to identify patients at high risk of experiencing cardiotoxicity.

Automated summary

Identification of risk factors and assessment of risk prediction model in a large population of breast cancer patients. Factors associated with cardiovascular events include high blood pressure, acute coronary syndrome, and Scarff-Blool-Richardson grade. Abdel-Qadir score was not fully validated in this population.