Updating performance of high rock slopes by combining incremental time-series monitoring data and three-dimensional numerical analysis

Predicted performance of a complex geotechnical system is subject to errors due to the uncertainties associated with both the prediction model and the system parameters. This paper aims to develop a multi-step updating method to reduce the uncertainties of the prediction model and system parameters using incremental time-series monitoring data, and to enhance the prediction of the future performance of the complex geotechnical system. The multi-step updating method considers inherent uncertainty of the system, model uncertainty and measurement uncertainty. The prediction is updated and improved step by step with new monitoring information using Bayes' theorem. Two realistic geotechnical cases including a basement excavation and a multi-stage excavation of a high rock slope are presented for illustration. The multi-step updating method integrates the theoretical computational model with observational evidence. With more monitoring information being incorporated, the prediction becomes closer to the actual performance of the system, and the distributions of the system parameters become closer to the reality. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.