Reversal of monthly East Asian winter air temperature in 2020/21 and its predictability

In this study, the reversal of monthly East Asian winter air temperature (EAWT) in 2020/21 and its predictability were investigated. The reversal of monthly EAWT in 2020/21 was characterized by colder temperatures in early winter (December 2020 to mid-January 2021) and warmer temperatures in late winter (mid-January to February 2021). Results show that the reversal in the intensity of the Siberian high (SH) also occurred between early and late winter in 2020/21. In early winter, as the Barents-Laptev sea ice in the previous September (i.e., in 2020) reached a minimum for the period 1981-2020, the SH was strengthened via a reduction of the meridional gradient between the Arctic and East Asia. In late winter, as a sudden stratospheric warming occurred on 5 January 2021, the stratospheric polar vortex weakened, with the weakest center shifting to North America in January. Subsequently, the negative Arctic Oscillation-like structure shifted towards North America in the middle and lower troposphere, which weakened the SH in late winter. Furthermore, the predictability of the reversal in EAWT in 2020/21 was validated based on monthly and daily predictions from NCEP-CFSv2 (National Centers for Environment Prediction-Climate Forecast System, version 2). The results showed that the model was unable to reproduce the monthly reversal of EAWT. However, it was able to forecast the reversal date (18 January 2021) of EAWT at lead times of 1-20 days on the daily scale.

Automated summary

This study investigated the reversal of monthly East Asian winter air temperature in 2020/21 and its predictability. The reversal was characterized by colder temperatures in early winter and warmer temperatures in late winter. The study also found a reversal in the intensity of the Siberian high between early and late winter.