Disentangling the Impact of Covid-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Crime in New York City

The Covid-19 stay-at-home restrictions put in place in New York City were followed by an abrupt shift in movement away from public spaces and into the home. This study used interrupted time series analysis to estimate the impact of these changes by crime type and location (public space vs. residential setting), while adjusting for underlying trends, seasonality, temperature, population, and possible confounding from the subsequent protests against police brutality in response to the police-involved the killing of George Floyd. Consistent with routine activity theory, we found that the SAH restrictions were associated with decreases in residential burglary, felony assault, grand larceny, rape, and robbery; increases in non-residential burglary and residential grand larceny motor vehicle; and no change in murder and shooting incidents. We also found that the protests were associated with increases in several crime types: felony assault, grand larceny, robbery, and shooting incidents. Future research on Covid-19's impact on crime will need to account for these potentially confounding events.

Automated summary

The Covid-19 stay-at-home restrictions in New York City resulted in a shift of movement away from public spaces and into residential settings. According to the study, these restrictions led to decreases in residential burglary, felony assault, grand larceny, rape, and robbery, while non-residential burglary and residential grand larceny motor vehicle increased. There was no change in murder and shooting incidents. Additionally, the protests following the police-involved killing of George Floyd were associated with increases in felony assault, grand larceny, robbery, and shooting incidents. Future research on the impact of Covid-19 on crime should consider these potentially confounding events.