期刊
ANALYTIC METHODS IN ACCIDENT RESEARCH
卷 32, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2021.100183
关键词
Economic recession; Alcohol or drug; Multi-vehicle crash; Driver injury severity; Heterogeneity in the means and variances; Temporal stability
资金
- United States Department of Trans-portation, University Transportation Center through the Center for Advanced Multimodal Mobility Solutions and Education (CAMMSE) at The University of North Carolina at Charlotte [69A3551747133]
This paper explores the factors affecting alcohol/drug-impaired crash injury severities during three crash cycle phases after the Great Recession using data from North Carolina from 2008 to 2017. Significant time-of-day variations and temporal instabilities were observed, with insights suggesting the importance of accounting for these variations in enforcing laws and designing preventive activities.
Using data of multi-vehicle crashes with drivers under the influence of alcohol/drugs in North Carolina from 2008 to 2017, this paper explores time-of-day variations (daytime vs. night-time) and temporal instabilities of factors affecting alcohol/drug-impaired crash injury severities during three crash cycle phases after the Great Recession. Random parameters logit models with heterogeneity in the means and variances are utilized to identify significant factors, explore unobserved heterogeneity, reveal correlations between factors, and suggest possible impacts of economic conditions on the factors. Different likelihood ratio tests indicate that the effects of factors vary significantly across time-of-day and economic-related cycle periods. Significant time-of-day variations imply more severe injury alcohol/drug involved crashes during the night-time compared to the daytime. Meanwhile, temporal instabilities are also observed in marginal effects of several factors across three-cycle periods. Proficient and cautious elder drivers were safer than young drivers during the depression period. Also, both depressing and expanding periods could affect the involvement of alcohol/drugs for drivers. Shifts in alcohol/drug use behaviors underscore the importance of accounting time-of-day variations, temporal instabilities, and heterogeneity in the means and variances inherent in alcohol/drug-impaired crash factors after the Great Recession. The insights of this study should be valuable to improve specific enforcements, qualify punishments, organize targeted campaigns, and design other preventive activities for alcohol/drug-impaired crashes. (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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