Shrinking cities in China: Evidence from the latest two population censuses 2010-2020

As the world's largest developing country, most Chinese cities are experiencing both population shrinkage and spatial expansion in the context of rapid urbanisation. To address the negative impacts of urban shrinkage in a targeted manner, it is necessary to accurately identify shrinking cities in China. In this study, we utilise the sixth and latest seventh population census data to identify and map shrinking cities in China that are experiencing population loss between 2010 and 2020. As a result, we identified 1507 shrinking districts and counties (52% of all 2896 districts and counties in China), with a total area of 4.4 million km(2), covering almost 46% of China's territory. In addition, we further found that from 2010 to 2020, there are 266 shrinking cities in China, an increase of 86 (12%) compared with 2000-2010. This indicates that the situation of shrinking cities in China has become more critical. From the perspective of spatial distribution, Chinese shrinking cities are clustered, mainly in the northeast and central regions. We also plot the proportion of shrinkage in a deformed form to reveal which prefecture-level cities are losing population from 2010 to 2020. Our findings provide policymakers and urban planners with a reference and warning that measures should be taken to adjust the growth-oriented planning paradigm to reverse the negative impact of population loss on urban development.

Automated summary

Most cities in China are facing population shrinkage and spatial expansion, with the situation of shrinking cities becoming more critical. The study identifies and maps shrinking cities in China using census data, revealing their spatial distribution and emphasizing the need for policymakers and urban planners to adjust growth-oriented planning paradigms to address population loss's adverse impact on urban development.