Framework for incorporating climate projections in the integrated planning and management of urban infrastructure

The impact of climate change on the management and planning of coastal urban areas has become a worldwide issue and has been the subject of several studies in recent decades. Climate change projection in the design phase of urban planning allows building capacity for urban adaptation and avoids future economic costs. Many coastal communities still keep reactive adaptation responses due to a lack of knowledge about how to incorporate this information in planning. In this sense, this paper presents a modelling framework to guide the incorporation of climate projections in the planning and management of coastal areas. The framework was applied in a coastal city of Brazil, where high environmental vulnerability and constantly coastal flooding are observed. The results indicate that there is no significant difference between the emission scenarios, in the short and medium-term, for precipitation projections and runoff peak flow. Extreme rainfall projections give differences up to 21% between the historical series and the projection for 2100. For the sea level projection, the extent of flooded areas induced by the worst emission scenario until the end of the century will reach 10% of the total municipally area (characterized by ecologically sensitive areas). In general, the framework provides preliminary information that can be used to improve spatial planning in a local context. Given the several simplified assumptions, the results should be used with caution, serving as a baseline for future planning efforts in the search for resilient cities.

Automated summary

The impact of climate change on coastal urban areas is a global issue. This study presents a modeling framework for incorporating climate projections in planning and management of coastal areas. The framework was applied in a coastal city in Brazil and found that emission scenarios do not significantly affect precipitation and runoff peak flow in the short and medium-term, but extreme rainfall projections and sea level projections have implications. This framework provides preliminary information to improve spatial planning in a local context.