期刊
URBAN CLIMATE
卷 41, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.101045
关键词
Mortality; Risk; Low temperature; Climate change; Central heating; Adaptability
资金
- National Key Research and Development Program of China [2018YFA0606200]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [42075173]
- Medical Scientific Research Foundation of Guangdong Province, China [A2021340, B2020080]
The study reveals a negative association between central heating and winter mortality, with stronger effects on females and the elderly, and a greater impact on respiratory diseases compared to cardiovascular diseases. Reduction in central heating duration is linked to an increase in total mortality risk. The temperature effect is more pronounced in locations without central heating compared to those with it.
The association between temperature and mortality has been widely investigated, however, studies on the effects of central heating on mortality risk are sparse. We applied a variant of difference-in-differences (DID) approach to assess the effects of central heating on winter mortality in China, and further analyzed the modification effect of central heating on the temperature-mortality association. Central heating was negatively associated with winter mortality (OR: 0.42, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.46) with higher effects on females and the elderly. Compared with cardiovascular or cerebrovascular diseases, central heating had a much greater effect on respiratory diseases. Every week less in central heating duration was associated with a 3.32% (95% CI: 3.03%, 3.61%) increased risk in total mortality. We found the temperature effect was much more pronounced among the locations without central heating (ER: 5.01%, 95% CI: 4.68%, 5.34%) than those with central heating (ER: 0.01%, 95% CI: -0.74%, 0.75%). The analysis suggests that central heating significantly decreases winter mortality in northern China, which may partly be achieved by attenuating the mortality caused by temperature. Therefore, central heating should be developed in some regions of southern China to reduce the mortality risk of low temperature in winter.
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