Stochastic Simulation of Strong Ground Motions From Two M > 5 Uttarakhand Earthquakes

Many studies based on the geodetic data and statistical analysis of seismicity have pointed out that sufficient amount of stress accumulated in the Himalayan plate boundary may host a big earthquake. Consequently, high seismic activities and infrastructural developments in the major cities around Himalayan regions are always of major concern. The ground motion parameter estimation plays a vital role in the near real time evaluation of potentially damaged areas and helps in mitigating the seismic hazard. Therefore, keeping in mind the importance of estimation of ground motion parameters, we targeted two moderate-size earthquakes that occurred recently within a gap of 10 months in Uttarakhand region with M > 5.0 on 06/02/2017 and 06/12/2017. The ground motions are simulated by adopting a stochastic modeling technique. The source is assumed as omega(-2), a circular point source (Brune's model). The average value of reported anelastic attenuation from various studies, the quality factor, Q(s) = 130.4*(f(0.996)), and stress drop values obtained through iterative procedure are considered for simulations. The stochastic spectra are generated between 0.1 and 10 Hz of frequency range. The site effect is also estimated by using the H/V method in the same frequency range. The synthetic spectra are compared with the observed Fourier amplitude spectra obtained from the recorded waveform data and converted back to the time histories. The stochastic time histories are compared with the observed waveforms and discussed in terms of amplitude (PGA). The simulated and observed response spectra at different structural periods are also discussed. The mismatch between the observed and simulated PGA values along with the GMPE existing for shallow crustal earthquakes is also discussed in the present work.

Automated summary

This study focuses on seismic activity and ground motion parameter estimation in the Himalayan region, particularly targeting two moderate earthquakes that occurred in Uttarakhand within a 10-month gap. Using stochastic modeling technique, the ground motions were simulated and compared with observed data, discussing the discrepancies between simulated and observed values, along with existing ground motion prediction equations for shallow crustal earthquakes.