Prediction of Healthy Pregnancy Outcomes in Women with Overweight and Obesity: The Role of Maternal Early-Pregnancy Metabolites

Women with obesity receive intensified antenatal care due to their increased risk of pregnancy complications, even though not all of these women develop complications. We developed a model based on maternal characteristics for prediction of healthy pregnancy outcomes in women with obesity or who are overweight. We assessed whether early-pregnancy metabolites improved prediction. In a population-based cohort study among a subsample of 1180 Dutch pregnant women with obesity or who are overweight, we developed a prediction model using 32 maternal socio-demographic, lifestyle, physical and pregnancy-related characteristics. We determined early-pregnancy amino acids, nonesterifed fatty acids, phospholipids and carnitines in blood serum using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. A healthy pregnancy outcome was the absence of fetal death, gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, gestational diabetes, caesarian section, preterm birth, large-for-gestational-age at birth, macrosomia, postpartum weight retention and offspring overweight/obesity at 5 years. Maternal age, relationship status, parity, early-pregnancy body mass index, mid-pregnancy gestational weight gain, systolic blood pressure and estimated fetal weight were selected into the model using backward selection (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.68)). Early-pregnancy metabolites did not improve model performance. Thus, in women with obesity or who are overweight, maternal characteristics can moderately predict a healthy pregnancy outcome. Maternal early-pregnancy metabolites have no incremental value in the prediction of a healthy pregnancy outcome.

Automated summary

Women with obesity or who are overweight receive intensified antenatal care due to their increased risk of pregnancy complications. A prediction model based on maternal characteristics moderately predicts a healthy pregnancy outcome in these women, while early-pregnancy metabolites did not improve the model's performance.