Establishment and Validation of Prognostic Nomograms Based on Serum Copper Level for Patients With Early-Stage Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

Background: Altered copper levels have been observed in several cancers, but studies on the relationship between serum copper and early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) remain scare. We sought to establish a predictive model incorporating serum copper levels for individualized survival predictions.Methods: We retrospectively analyzed clinicopathological information and baseline peripheric blood samples of patients diagnosed with early-stage TNBC between September 2005 and October 2016 at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center. The optimal cut-off point of serum copper level was determined using maximally selected log-rank statistics. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate survival probabilities. Independent prognostic indicators associated with survival were identified using multivariate Cox regression analysis, and subsequently, prognostic nomograms were established to predict individualized disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). The nomograms were validated in a separate cohort of 86 patients from the original randomized clinical trial SYSUCC-001 (SYSUCC-001 cohort).Results: 350 patients were eligible in this study, including 264 in the training cohort and 86 in the SYSUCC-001 cohort. An optimal cut-off value of 21.3 mu mol/L of serum copper was determined to maximally divide patients into low- and high-copper groups. After a median follow-up of 87.1 months, patients with high copper levels had significantly worse DFS (p = 0.002) and OS (p < 0.001) than those with low copper levels in the training cohort. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that serum copper level was an independent factor for DFS and OS. Further, prognostic models based on serum copper were established for individualized predictions. These models showed excellent discrimination [C-index for DFS: 0.689, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.621-0.757; C-index for OS: 0.728, 95% CI: 0.654-0.802] and predictive calibration, and were validated in the SYSUCC-001 cohort.Conclusion: Serum copper level is a potential predictive biomarker for patients with early-stage TNBC. Predictive nomograms based on serum copper might be served as a practical tool for individualized prognostication.

Automated summary

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between serum copper levels and early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), and establish a predictive model based on serum copper levels for individualized survival predictions. The results showed that high serum copper levels were significantly associated with worse DFS and OS, and the prognostic models based on serum copper demonstrated excellent discrimination and predictive calibration.