Are We Approaching Peak Meat Consumption? Analysis of Meat Consumption from 2000 to 2019 in 35 Countries and Its Relationship to Gross Domestic Product

Simple Summary Meat production has been associated with environmental degradation, yet at the same time many countries are increasing their consumption. We analyzed which countries are increasing and which decreasing their consumption of all the major meats consumed over a period from 2000 to 2019. There is evidence of peak meat consumption having been reached in several countries, but also evidence of continued consumption increases in many of the emerging-economy countries, probably due to greater affordability. We also found evidence of this when we attempted to link Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita to meat consumption per capita. In many emerging-economy countries, there was a direct link over the years studied, but in the higher income countries there was no relationship. We discuss how this observed dichotomous relationship will shape future trends in meat consumption. Growing prosperity, but also disease outbreaks, natural disasters, and consumer preferences are changing global meat consumption. We investigated the 2000-2019 trends in 35 countries monitored by the Food and Agriculture Organization and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. We also tested relationships with Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Several countries appeared to be reaching peak consumption of some meats, and three (New Zealand, Canada, and Switzerland) have reached this. Poultry consumption increased over time in most countries, and beef and mutton/lamb consumption decreased in many. Using cluster analysis, we divided countries into two clusters: one in which increases in GDP per capita matched increases in meat consumption; and a second one of nine countries, for which there was no association between per capita change in GDP and meat consumption. There was evidence of a tipping point around USD 40,000 of GDP per capita, after which increases in economic well-being do not lead to increased meat consumption.

Automated summary

The study found that while some countries have reached peak meat consumption, many emerging economies are still increasing consumption due to greater affordability. There is a direct link between GDP per capita and meat consumption in emerging economies, but no relationship in higher income countries. Future trends in meat consumption will be shaped by growing prosperity, disease outbreaks, natural disasters, and consumer preferences.