Progression-Free Survival as Early Efficacy Endpoint in Resectable Esophageal Cancer Treated With Neoadjuvant Therapy: A Systematic Review

To investigate literature-based evidence regarding progression-free survival (PFS) as an early efficacy endpoint in patients with resectable esophageal or gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) cancer receiving neoadjuvant therapy, this study identified large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with strict quality control. Twenty-four RCTs involving 7,514 patients were included. Trial-level correlation analysis was conducted to analyze the relationship between PFS hazard ratio (HR) and overall survival (OS) HR, & UDelta; median PFS and & UDelta; median OS. Correlation analysis at the neoadjuvant treatment arm level was performed between 1- to 5-year PFS and 5-year OS, median PFS and median OS. Subgroup analysis was performed in patients treated with standard neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT). The correlation was evaluated using the Pearson correlation coefficient r in weighted linear regression, with weight equal to patient size. In trial-level correlation, PFS were strongly associated with OS HR (r, 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.42-0.97]) and & UDelta; median survival (r, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.54-0.96]). In neoadjuvant treatment arms, there was a strong correlation between 1 to 5-year PFS rates and 5-year OS (r, 0.83-0.95), and median PFS and median OS (r, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.85-0.99]). NCRT subgroup analysis demonstrated acceptable consistency. In conclusion, we recommend PFS as an early efficacy endpoint in resected esophageal or GEJ cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy.

Automated summary

This study investigated the use of progression-free survival (PFS) as an early efficacy endpoint in patients with resectable esophageal or gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) cancer receiving neoadjuvant therapy. The study identified large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and found a strong correlation between PFS and overall survival (OS) and median survival. The results suggest that PFS can be a useful early efficacy endpoint in these patients.