Trajectories of Perioperative Serum Tumor Markers and Colorectal Cancer Outcomes: A Retrospective, Multicenter Longitudinal Cohort Study

Background: The dynamic monitoring of perioperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is recommended by current colorectal cancer (CRC) guidelines, while the benefits of additional measurements of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) and carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125) have remained controversial. Methods: This retrospective longitudinal cohort included 3539 CRC patients who underwent curative resec-tion. Distinct trajectory groups were identified by the latent class growth mixed model. Patients were grouped into subgroups jointly by CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 according to preoperative levels and longitudinal trajectories, respectively. The end points were overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Findings: Three distinct trajectory groups were characterized for serum CEA, CA19-9, and CA125: low-stable, early-rising, and later-rising. Jointly, patients were grouped into six preoperative (trajectory) joint groups. Compared with the three-low group, the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with death were 1.87 (1.29-2.70), 3.82 (2.37-6.17), 1.87 (0.97-3.61), 2.81 (1.93-4.11), and 4.99 (2.80-8.86) for the CEA-high, CA19-9-high, CA125-high, two-high, and three-high group, respectively. And compared with the three-stable trajectory group, the corresponding HRs (95% CIs) were 1.59 (1.10-2.30), 1.55 (0.77-3.10), 6.25 (4.02-9.70), 4.05 (2.73-6.02), and 12.40 (5.77-26.70) for the five rising trajectory groups, respectively. Similar associations between joint groups and RFS were observed. Notably, the trajec-tory joint group still had prognostic significance after adjusting for preoperative levels. The CA19-9-high group (HR: 3.82, 95% CI: 2.37-6.17) was associated with higher risk of death than the two-high group (HR: 2.81, 95% CI: 1.93-4.11). Likewise, for the CA125-rising trajectory group and two-rising trajectory group, the HRs (95% CIs) were 6.13 (3.75-10.00) and 3.99 (2.63-6.05) for death, and 3.08 (2.07-4.58) and 2.10 (1.52-2.90) for recurrence. Interpretation: In addition to CEA, the dynamic measurements of CA19-9 and CA125 are recommended to monitor the prognosis of CRC patients. (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.

Automated summary

In addition to CEA, dynamic monitoring of CA19-9 and CA125 is recommended to monitor the prognosis of CRC patients. Different trajectory groups based on preoperative levels and longitudinal trajectories have significant impact on overall survival and recurrence-free survival of patients.