Improved Forecast Skill Through the Assimilation of Dropsonde Observations From the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Program

Landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the western US are responsible for similar to 30%-50% of the annual precipitation, and their accurate forecasts are essential for aiding water management decisions and reducing flood risks. Sparse coverage of conventional observations over the Pacific Ocean, which can cause inadequate upstream initial conditions for numerical weather prediction models, may limit the improvement of forecast skill for these events. A targeted field program called AR Reconnaissance (Recon) was initiated in 2016 to better understand and reduce forecast errors of landfalling ARs at 1-5 days lead times. During the winter seasons of 2016, 2018, and 2019, 15 Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs) sampled the upstream conditions for landfalling ARs. This study evaluates the impact on forecast accuracy of assimilating these dropsonde data. Data denial experiments with (WithDROP) and without (NoDROP) dropsonde data were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation four-dimensional ensemble variational system. Comparisons between the 15 paired NoDROP and WithDROP experiments demonstrate that AR Recon dropsondes reduced the root-mean-square error in integrated vapor transport (IVT) and inland precipitation for more than 70% of the IOPs, averaged over all forecast lead times from 1 to 6 days. Dropsondes have improved the spatial pattern of forecasts of IVT and precipitation in all 15 IOPs. Significant improvements in skill are found beyond the short range (1-2 days). IOP sequences (i.e., back-to-back IOPs every other day) show the most improvement of inland precipitation forecast skill.

Automated summary

This study evaluates the impact of assimilating dropsonde data from the AR Reconnaissance program on forecast accuracy for landfalling ARs. The dropsondes reduced root-mean-square error in integrated vapor transport and inland precipitation for over 70% of the Intensive Observation Periods, and improved the spatial pattern of forecasts in all 15 IOPs, with significant skill improvements beyond the short range forecast period.