Increasing Heat-Stress Inequality in a Warming Climate

Adaptation is key to minimizing heatwaves' societal burden; however, our understanding of adaptation capacity across the socioeconomic spectrum is incomplete. We demonstrate that observed heatwave trends in the past four decades were most pronounced in the lowest-quartile income region of the world resulting in >40% higher exposure from 2010 to 2019 compared to the highest-quartile income region. Lower-income regions have reduced adaptative capacity to warming, which compounds the impacts of higher heatwave exposure. We also show that individual contiguous heatwaves engulfed up to 2.5-fold larger areas in the recent decade (2010-2019) as compared to the 1980s. Widespread heatwaves can overwhelm the power grid and nullify the electricity dependent adaptation efforts, with significant implications even in regions with higher adaption capacity. Furthermore, we compare projected global heatwave exposure using per-capita gross domestic product as an indicator of adaptation capacity. Hypothesized rapid adaptation in high-income regions yields limited changes in heatwave exposure through the 21st century. By contrast, lagged adaptation in the lower-income region translates to escalating heatwave exposure and increased heat-stress inequality. The lowest-quartile income region is expected to experience 1.8- to 5-fold higher heatwave exposure than each higher income region from 2060 to 2069. This inequality escalates by the end of the century, with the lowest-quartile income region experiencing almost as much heatwave exposure as the three higher income regions combined from 2090 to 2099. Our results highlight the need for global investments in adaptation capabilities of low-income countries to avoid major climate-driven human disasters in the 21st century.

Automated summary

Adaptation is crucial in reducing the social burden caused by heatwaves, but our understanding of adaptation capacity across different socioeconomic levels is incomplete. Observed heatwave trends in the past four decades have been most significant in the poorest regions, resulting in over 40% higher exposure from 2010 to 2019 compared to the richest regions. Lower-income regions have reduced adaptative capacity to warming, which amplifies the impacts of higher heatwave exposure. In addition, contiguous heatwaves have engulfed larger areas in recent years compared to the 1980s. Widespread heatwaves can overwhelm the power grid and nullify electricity-dependent adaptation efforts, even in regions with higher adaptation capacity.