A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Groundwater Dynamics: Case Study of the Choshui River Basin

Land subsidence resulting from the overexploitation of groundwater is an important issue in the Choshui River Basin, Taiwan. In the current study, we employed system dynamics simulation in modeling the supply of surface and groundwater, as well as the demand for water by industry, water deficits, and mechanisms underlying land subsidence. The proposed model was then used to estimate the magnitude of land subsidence and evaluate various management strategies. Our simulation results revealed that the vigorous enforcement of well sealing would have a modest effect on land subsidence; however, it would also have notable adverse effects on the agricultural community. We determined that reducing the demand for irrigation water (e.g., by switching to less water-intensive crops) would reduce land subsidence, while preserving profitability in those areas. In the future, this policy could be complemented by promoting the adoption of advanced irrigation technology and automatic systems to further slow the excessive exploitation of groundwater, with a corresponding effect on land subsidence.

Automated summary

This study utilized system dynamics simulation to model the supply of surface and groundwater and the demand for water by industry, as well as the mechanisms underlying land subsidence in the Choshui River Basin, Taiwan. The simulation results indicated that well sealing had a limited effect on land subsidence but would negatively impact the agricultural community. Reducing the demand for irrigation water and promoting advanced irrigation technology can help mitigate land subsidence caused by excessive groundwater exploitation.