Modeling Air Pollution Health Risk for Environmental Management of an Internationally Important Site: The Salt Range (Kallar Kahar), Pakistan

This study aimed to assess the health effects of emissions released by cement industries and allied activities, such as mining and transportation, in the salt range area of district Chakwal, Pakistan. DISPER was used to estimate dispersion and contribution of source emission by cement industries and allied activities to surface accumulation of selected pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NOx, and O-3). To assess the long-term effects of pollutants on human health within the radius of 500 m to 3 km, Air Q+ software was used, which was designed by the World Health Organization (WHO). One-year average monitoring data of selected pollutants, coordinates, health data, and population data were used as input data for the model. Data was collected on lung cancer mortality among different age groups (25+ and 30+), infant post-neonatal mortality, mortality due to respiratory disease, and all-cause mortality due to PM2.5 and NO2. Results showed that PM2.5 with the year-long concentration of 27.3 mu g/m(3) contributes a 9.9% attributable proportion (AP) to lung cancer mortality in adults aged 25+, and 13.8% AP in adults age 30+. Baseline incidence is 44.25% per 100,000 population. PM10 with the year-long concentration of 57.4 mu g/m(3) contributes 16.96% AP to infant post-neonatal mortality and baseline incidence is 53.86% per 1000 live births in the country. NO2 with the year-long concentration of 14.33 mu g/m(3) contributes 1.73% AP to all-cause mortality. Results obtained by a simulated 10% reduction in pollutant concentration showed that proper mitigation measures for reduction of pollutants' concentration should be applied to decrease the rate of mortalities and morbidities. Furthermore, the study showed that PM2.5 and PM10 are significantly impacting the human health in the nearby villages, even after mitigation measures were taken by the selected cement industries. The study provides a roadmap to policymakers and stakeholders for environmental and health risk management in the area.

Automated summary

This study assessed the health effects of emissions released by cement industries and related activities in Pakistan. The results showed that PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 contributed to lung cancer mortality, infant mortality, and all-cause mortality. The study emphasized the importance of reducing pollutant concentrations to mitigate health risks.