期刊
WATER
卷 13, 期 21, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/w13213046
关键词
climate change; salinization; salt-water/fresh-water relations ; inverse modeling; island hydrology
资金
- European Commission [02.27.2018AIM]
- European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union [677898]
- University of Malta [PIE-0004]
A quantitative study using a three-dimensional model was conducted to analyze the effects of climate change in 2100 on groundwater volume and saltwater intrusion in the Maltese Islands. The results showed that the increase in water demand and the decrease in groundwater recharge were the main factors affecting groundwater resources, while sea-level rise had a marginal impact.
The effects of changes in climate predicted for 2100-reduction in recharge, increase in water demand and sea-level rise-on groundwater volume and saltwater intrusion have been quantified in the Maltese Islands, an archipelago located at the center of the Mediterranean Sea. A three-dimensional density dependent and heterogeneous model, working in transient conditions, was developed based on morphological and geological information. The hydraulic conductivity and porosity of the lithological formations were derived from previous tests and studies conducted on the islands. The complex fault system intersecting the area has also been included in the model. The results show that among the three considered factors affecting groundwater resources, the most significant is the increase in water demand, which is closely followed by the decrease in groundwater recharge. Sea-level rise plays a marginal role. The 80-year simulation period showed that these combined impacts would cause a loss of more than 16% of groundwater volume.
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