4.5 Article

COVID-19 pandemic hazard-risk-vulnerability analysis: a framework for an effective Pan-India response

期刊

GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL
卷 37, 期 25, 页码 9098-9109

出版社

TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/10106049.2021.2012529

关键词

COVID-19 hazard; social-economic vulnerability; COVID-19 risk; fuzzy AHP; GIS modelling

资金

  1. Department of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science & Technology, Government of India [BT/PR12899/NDB/39/506/2015]
  2. Shastri IndoCanadian Institute's Shastri Research Student Fellowship

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The study found that while the COVID-19 high and very high-risk primarily concentrated in limited areas, the proportion of high to very high-risk was evident in larger regions. Most parts of India exhibited moderate to very high socio-economic vulnerability, with districts containing megacities being severely affected due to complex urban and social systems.
This study evaluated the COVID-19 risk considering positive cases (as a hazard) and the demographic structure (as a socio-economic vulnerability) at districts scale across India using fuzzy analytical hierarchical process and geospatial modelling. Despite the fact that the high and very high COVID-19 hazard was observed in a limited area (14.2%, 233 districts), the proportion of high to very high COVID-19 risk was evident in larger regions (42.5%, 575 districts). A moderate to very high socio-economic vulnerability was recorded in major parts of the country (60.0%, 557 districts), while the districts with megacities had been severely affected due to the more complex urban and social systems. The study highlights the zones under high COVID-19 hazard and its possible linkages with vulnerability and risk at district scales in India that may effectively support emergency preparedness and response mechanisms during the different waves of the pandemic.

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