期刊
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
卷 12, 期 1, 页码 -出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26013-4
关键词
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资金
- EPSRC [EP/S024050/1, EP/V002910/1]
- EA Funds programme
- Oxford University
- DeepMind
- Open Philanthropy
- U.K. BBSRC [BB/T008784/1]
- Augustinus Foundation
- Knud HOjgaard Foundation
- William Demant Foundation
- Kai Lange and Gunhild Kai Lange Foundation
- Aage and Johanne Louis-Hansen Foundation
- UKRI Centre for Doctoral Training in Interactive Artificial Intelligence [EP/S022937/1]
- Boehringer Ingelheim Fonds
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis - U.K. Medical Research Council (MRC) [MR/R015600/1]
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis - U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement [MR/R015600/1]
- European Union
- Community Jameel
- Imperial College COVID-19 Research Fund
- EPSRC Centre for Doctoral Training in Autonomous Intelligent Machines and Systems [EP/S024050/1]
- Cancer Research UK
- UK Research and Innovation [MR/V038109/1]
- Academy of Medical Sciences Springboard Award [SBF004/1080]
- MRC [MR/R015600/1]
- BMGF [OPP1197730]
- Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust-BRC Funding [RDA02]
- Novo Nordisk Young Investigator Award [NNF20OC0059309]
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology
- BBSRC [BB/T008784/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- EPSRC [EP/S022937/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1197730] Funding Source: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Research shows that in Europe's second wave, interventions such as business closures, educational institution closures, and gathering bans help reduce virus transmission, but with slightly less effectiveness compared to the first wave. This difference is attributed to the implementation of safety measures and individual protective behaviors in public life during the pandemic.
European governments control resurging waves of COVID-19 using nonpharmaceutical interventions. Here, the authors estimate the effectiveness of 17 interventions in Europe's second wave, and analyse differences to the first wave as well as implications for the future of the pandemic. European governments use non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control resurging waves of COVID-19. However, they only have outdated estimates for how effective individual NPIs were in the first wave. We estimate the effectiveness of 17 NPIs in Europe's second wave from subnational case and death data by introducing a flexible hierarchical Bayesian transmission model and collecting the largest dataset of NPI implementation dates across Europe. Business closures, educational institution closures, and gathering bans reduced transmission, but reduced it less than they did in the first wave. This difference is likely due to organisational safety measures and individual protective behaviours-such as distancing-which made various areas of public life safer and thereby reduced the effect of closing them. Specifically, we find smaller effects for closing educational institutions, suggesting that stringent safety measures made schools safer compared to the first wave. Second-wave estimates outperform previous estimates at predicting transmission in Europe's third wave.
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