Global predictions of primary soil salinization under changing climate in the 21st century

Excess salt accumulation in the root zone causes soil salinization influencing soil health, biodiversity and food security. Authors used machine learning algorithms to predict global scale soil salinization under changing climate in the 21st century. Soil salinization has become one of the major environmental and socioeconomic issues globally and this is expected to be exacerbated further with projected climatic change. Determining how climate change influences the dynamics of naturally-occurring soil salinization has scarcely been addressed due to highly complex processes influencing salinization. This paper sets out to address this long-standing challenge by developing data-driven models capable of predicting primary (naturally-occurring) soil salinity and its variations in the world's drylands up to the year 2100 under changing climate. Analysis of the future predictions made here identifies the dryland areas of South America, southern and western Australia, Mexico, southwest United States, and South Africa as the salinization hotspots. Conversely, we project a decrease in the soil salinity of the drylands in the northwest United States, the Horn of Africa, Eastern Europe, Turkmenistan, and west Kazakhstan in response to climate change over the same period.

Automated summary

Excess salt accumulation in the root zone causes soil salinization, which affects soil health, biodiversity, and food security. The authors used machine learning algorithms to predict global soil salinization under changing climate in the 21st century, identifying hotspots in drylands such as South America, southern and western Australia, Mexico, southwest United States, and South Africa. Conversely, they project a decrease in soil salinity in northwest United States, the Horn of Africa, Eastern Europe, Turkmenistan, and west Kazakhstan in response to climate change.