A new framework to substantiate the prevalence of drought intensities

Drought is a natural disaster originating from a shortage of precipitation over an extended period, causing water deficiency for various groups, events, and environmental sectors. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is the most frequently used index to estimate drought. However, it cannot expeditiously relate to precipitation deficit, drought probability, and temporal evolution of the droughts. Therefore, a Copula-based Modified Continuous Drought Probability Monitoring System (MCDPMS) is proposed to instantaneously monitor precipitation deficit, drought probability, and temporal advancement of the drought. In MCDPMS, the steady-state probabilities are used to obtain information regarding the precipitation advances. Further, the MCDPMS considers the most popular Meta-Elliptical copulas (Gaussian and t Student) and Archimedean copulas (Clayton, Gumbel, and Frank). The families of these candidate copulas are selected based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The Maximum Pseudo-Likelihood (MPL) is used to estimate the parameters of the families of candidate copulas. The values of Brier Score (BS) and Brier Skill Score (BSS) are used to observe the performance, and validity of the MCDPMS, respectively. The MCDPMS is applied to the twelve meteorological stations of Punjab, Pakistan. The outcomes of the MCDPMS provide a better quantitative way to analyze varying drought intensities expeditiously for the selected stations. Furthermore, the results of the study provide valuable references for drought assessment and management.

Automated summary

The study proposes a Copula-based Modified Continuous Drought Probability Monitoring System (MCDPMS) to monitor precipitation deficit, drought probability, and temporal advancement of drought in real-time. Applied to twelve meteorological stations in Punjab, Pakistan, the MCDPMS provides a better quantitative way to analyze varying drought intensities, offering valuable references for drought assessment and management.