Future projection of precipitation and temperature changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region based on CMIP6

Temperature and precipitation are among the most important climatic elements in the study of climate change due to significant temporal and spatial changes, and the projection of their changes is very important in environmental hazards and planning. Therefore, in this study, the future of temperature and precipitation changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was projected. For this purpose, the data of 23 global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were used as networks under the influence of two scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 for temperature and precipitation changes in the two future periods (2020-2049 and 2050-2079) were investigated comparing to the base period (1985-2014). The results showed that the temperature will increase in both periods, which will be between 0.8 and 3.3 degrees C in the period 2020-2079 compared to the base period. The highest and lowest temperature changes are related to the eastern and northern regions of the study area, respectively. Projection of precipitation changes also showed that the precipitation in most of the study area will decrease in the next two periods compared to the base period, which will be between 5 and 133 mm on average. Most of its changes are related to the northern regions and in the form of a strip from Morocco to the northwest of Iran. In both studied periods, the SSP5-8.5 scenario shows the highest temperature and precipitation changes in the study area.

Automated summary

This study projected the future changes in temperature and precipitation in the Middle East and North Africa region using data from global circulation models. The results indicate an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in the future.