期刊
STRUCTURAL SAFETY
卷 93, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2021.102092
关键词
Imprecise probability; P-boxes; Literature review; Reliability analysis; Surrogate modelling
资金
- Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) [12P3519N]
- Alexander von Humboldt foundation
- German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD)
The paper discusses the importance of considering imprecise probability in engineering analysis and the application of probability-boxes in this context. Despite the straightforward concept of p-boxes, numerical propagation of uncertainties in model responses remains challenging and requires further research.
The consideration of imprecise probability in engineering analysis to account for missing, vague or incomplete data in the description of model uncertainties is a fast-growing field of research. Probability-boxes (p-boxes) are of particular interest in an engineering context, since they offer a mathematically straightforward description of imprecise probabilities, as well as allow for an intuitive visualisation. In essence, p-boxes are defined via lower and upper bounds on the cumulative distribution function of a random variable whose exact probability distribution is unknown. However, the propagation of p-boxes on model inputs towards bounds on probabilistic measures describing the uncertainty on the model responses is numerically still very demanding, and hence is subject of intensive research. In order to provide an overview on the available methods, this paper gives a stateof-the art review for the modelling and propagation of p-boxes with a special focus on structural reliability analysis.
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