期刊
RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS
卷 152, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111655
关键词
Energy systems; Deep decarbonization; Pathways; Models; Assessment
资金
- U.S. National Science Foundation [CMMI 1825225]
Energy systems models, particularly deep decarbonization models (DDM), are used to analyze long-term policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. An epistemological review of DDM literature over the past decade highlights the need for further studies on the potential strengths, usefulness, and limitations of these models. Proceeding with caution and striving for better models is crucial in utilizing DDMs to identify pathways for deep decarbonization of future energy systems and drawing policy conclusions.
Energy systems models are used to analyze long-term policies and pathways for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A subset of these models is bottom-up, engineering-economic models that minimize the costs of achieving exogenously specified annual reductions in GHG emissions to limit increases in global average temperature. Referred to as deep decarbonization models (DDM), their outputs include the levels and timing of energy investments that satisfy future energy demand projections across all energy sectors over multiple decades. This paper conducts an epistemological review of 42 articles on DDMs published in the last ten years. In its twopart review of the DDM literature, this paper first identifies the mathematical formulations, underlying assumptions, and constraints of the modeling framework that impact their outcomes. Next, it tabulates and discusses the possible limitations in assessing such models in terms of their epistemic values, i.e., creating new knowledge beyond common sense in capturing the possible realities; and non-epistemic values, i.e., policy relevance and usefulness of the modeling framework. This paper suggests the need for more studies and continued discussion on the potential strengths, usefulness, and limitations of the DDM framework. DDMs might be useful in identifying multiple pathways towards deep decarbonization of future energy systems, but there will always be a need to proceed with caution, strive for better models, and be more circumspect with respect to the associated policy conclusions.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据