The nutrition transition to a stage of high obesity and noncommunicable disease prevalence dominated by ultra-processed foods is not inevitable

The Nutrition Transition model is presented with the nature and pace of change in key stages varying by location and subpopulations. At present, all high-income and many low- and middle-income countries are in a stage of the transition where nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases including obesity, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension are dominating adult morbidity and mortality and are very high or growing rapidly in prevalence. Some countries still have key subpopulations facing hunger and undernutrition defined by stunting or extreme thinness among adults. We call these double burden of malnutrition countries. All low- and middle-income countries face rapid growth in consumption of ultra-processed food and beverages, but it is not inevitable that these countries will reach the same high levels of consumption seen in high-income countries, with all the negative impacts of this diet on health. With great political and civil society commitment to adoption of policies shown in other countries to have improved dietary choices and social norms around foods, we can arrest and even reverse the rapid shift to diets dominated by a stage of high ultra-processed food intake and increasing prevalence of nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases.

Automated summary

The Nutrition Transition model shows variations in the nature and pace of change in key stages depending on location and subpopulations. Currently, many countries are facing a stage where nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases are dominating adult morbidity and mortality, while some populations still suffer from hunger and undernutrition. By committing to policies that have been shown to improve dietary choices and social norms around foods, countries can prevent or reverse the rapid shift towards diets high in ultra-processed foods and the increasing prevalence of nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases.