Trends in drought occurrence and severity at mid-latitude European stations (1951-2015) estimated using standardized precipitation (SPI) and precipitation and evapotranspiration (SPEI) indices

One of the negative consequences of climate change is the also increase in the severity, frequency and length of droughts appearing in Europe. The effects of meteorological drought are often substantial, not only for the natural environment but also for humans. Hence, the main purpose of this research was to determine the trends in the severity and occurrence of droughts in Europe during the period 1951-2015 using the standardized precipitation index and the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). For six European sites located in mid latitudes, the number of dry months was determined and the trend of their occurrence was examined. Moreover, for the summer months in which the indicators fell below 0, the trend related to the severity of the drought was determined for each site. Despite the absence of a statistically significant trend of an increase in the occurrence of dry months in general, an increase in the severity of droughts occurring in summer was observed for the SPEI over a 6-month scale for all the investigated stations. The highest number of dry months since the 1970s appeared during the last 5 years of analysis.

Automated summary

One of the negative consequences of climate change in Europe is the increase in severity, frequency, and duration of droughts. This research analyzed the trends in drought severity and occurrence in Europe from 1951 to 2015 using standardized precipitation index and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The study found that while there was no significant increase in the occurrence of dry months overall, there was an increase in the severity of summer droughts across all investigated stations.