Developing an Application-Specific Ground-Motion Model for Induced Seismicity

A key element of quantifying both the hazard and risk due to induced earthquakes is a suite of appropriate ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that encompass the possible shaking levels due to such events. Induced earthquakes are likely to be of smaller magnitude and shallower focal depth than the tectonic earthquakes for which most GMPEs are derived. Furthermore, whereas GMPEs for moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes are usually derived to be transportable to different locations and applications, taking advantage of the limited regional dependence observed for such events, the characteristics of induced earthquakes warrant the development of application-specific models. A preliminary ground-motion model for induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field in The Netherlands is presented as an illustration of a possible approach to the development of these equations. The GMPE is calibrated to local recordings of small-magnitude events and captures the epistemic uncertainty in the extrapolation to larger magnitude considered in the assessment of the resulting hazard and risk.