☆ 4.6 Article

Pandemic spread in communities via random graphs

JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL MECHANICS-THEORY AND EXPERIMENT (2021)

Heterogeneity and superspreading effect on herd immunity

Yaron Oz et al.

Summary: This study examines the impact of heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility, as well as the correlation between these factors, on the necessary percentage of the population to contract the disease for herd immunity to be reached. It highlights the difference between the size of the infected population when the effective reproduction number decreases below 1 versus the ultimate fraction of population that had contracted the disease. The research emphasizes the importance of limiting disease spread, even if natural herd immunity is the goal.

JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL MECHANICS-THEORY AND EXPERIMENT (2021)

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Article Mechanics

Superspreaders and high variance infectious diseases

Yaron Oz et al.

Summary: The study analyzes the high heterogeneity of infection spread in recent pandemics and quantifies its effects on disease outbreaks. By using mathematical models and population simulations, it shows the possibility of avoiding outbreaks even when the basic reproduction number is high. The findings have implications for understanding the impact of infected individuals and basic reproduction number in the current COVID-19 scenario and general information spread scenarios.

JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL MECHANICS-THEORY AND EXPERIMENT (2021)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences