Relative instantaneous reproduction number of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant with respect to the Delta variant in Denmark

The Omicron variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become widespread across the world in a flashing manner. As of December 7, 2021, a total of 758 Omicron cases were confirmed in Denmark. Using the nucleotide sequences of the Delta and Omicron variants registered from Denmark in the GISAID database, we found that the effective (instantaneous) reproduction number of Omicron is 3.19 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.82-3.61) times greater than that of Delta under the same epidemiological conditions. The proportion of Omicron infections among all SARS-CoV-2 infections in Denmark was expected to exceed 95% on December 28, 2021, with a 95% CI from December 25 to December 31, 2021. Given that the Delta variant or variants less transmissible than Delta are dominant in most countries, the rapid increase in Omicron in the virus population may be observed as soon as the Omicron is introduced. Preparing proactive control measures is vital, assuming the substantial advantage of the transmission by Omicron.

Automated summary

The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly across the globe, with 758 confirmed cases in Denmark. Based on Danish data, the effective reproduction number of Omicron is estimated to be 3.19 times higher than that of the Delta variant. It is expected that by December 28, 2021, over 95% of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Denmark will be caused by the Omicron variant.