期刊
JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
卷 225, 期 6, 页码 957-964出版社
OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC
DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiab606
关键词
respiratory syncytial virus; pandemic; seasonality; COVID-19; nonpharmaceutical intervention; temperature; humidity; wind speed; school; susceptibility
资金
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
- World Health Organization (WHO)
Nonpharmaceutical interventions, increasing population susceptibility, and full (re)opening of schools have driven the rebound of respiratory syncytial virus during the COVID-19 pandemic, overriding the effect of temperature.
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were widely introduced to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. These interventions also likely led to substantially reduced activity of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). From late 2020, some countries observed out-of-season RSV epidemics. Here, we analyzed the role of NPIs, population mobility, climate, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 circulation in RSV rebound through a time-to-event analysis across 18 countries. Full (re)opening of schools was associated with an increased risk for RSV rebound (hazard ratio [HR], 23.29 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.09-495.84]); every 5 degrees C increase in temperature was associated with a decreased risk (HR, 0.63 [95% CI, .40-.99]). There was an increasing trend in the risk for RSV rebound over time, highlighting the role of increased population susceptibility. No other factors were found to be statistically significant. Further analysis suggests that increasing population susceptibility and full (re)opening of schools could both override the countereffect of high temperatures, which explains the out-of-season RSV epidemics during the COVID-19 pandemic. Increasing population susceptibility and full (re)opening of schools have driven respiratory syncytial virus rebound during the COVID-19 pandemic, overriding the effect of temperature.
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