Energy market uncertainty and the impact on the crude oil prices

Our paper proposes a novel measure of global energy market uncertainty and studies its impact on oil prices. The current literature primarily relies on a single or small number of observable variables, or general macroeconomic uncertainty (JLN) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices to reflect energy market uncertainty. Using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression model (FAVAR), we construct time-varying global energy market uncertainty in a data-rich environment. Our estimates show variations from JLN and EPU proxies. The results reveal that real oil prices respond strongly to our proposed aggregate energy market uncertainty shocks. We also find heterogeneous responses to different types and magnitudes of uncertainty shocks. The real price of oil is affected the most under unexpected strong demand for alternative energy sources scenario.

Automated summary

The paper introduces a new measure of global energy market uncertainty and analyzes its impact on oil prices using a FAVAR model. The results indicate that real oil prices exhibit a strong response to the proposed aggregate energy market uncertainty shocks, especially under scenarios of unexpected strong demand for alternative energy sources.