Climate change impact on Brazilian broiler production cost: a simulation study

The present study aimed to estimate the impact of global warming on Brazilian broiler production cost, giving the future scenarios presented by the International Panel on Climate Change using the fuzzy logic approach. The database included broiler production costs at normal temperature conditions (input), considering the need for investment for mitigating the increase in environmental temperatures. The output was the production cost change (PCV). We studied three housing technology levels directly related to the utilization of insulation, ventilation, and cooling equipment (Tech 1, 2, and 3). The analysis was divided into two aspects: the rise in air temperature, pessimistic (+ 2.5 degrees C) and optimistic (+ 1.5 degrees C). Fuzzy logic was applied using the Mamdani model. The fuzzy set was represented by the triangular membership function for the input and output variables, which presented lower standard deviation values. PCV functions were found for the studied scenarios for each housing technology. Under the pessimistic setup, the highest PCV (42.3%) was found for the medium-level housing technology (Tech 2), meaning that the farmer needs to invest more in the rearing environment to face global warming. A similar result was found for Tech 1 with a PCV of 35.8%. Under the optimist scenario, the smallest PCV was detected in the Tech 2 housing (12.5%), followed by the applied Tech 3 (19.9%). Results indicated that broiler farmers with a high degree of housing technologies are less vulnerable to extreme weather due to earlier investment in cooling technologies.

Automated summary

This study aims to estimate the impact of global warming on Brazilian broiler production cost using fuzzy logic approach. The results indicate that broiler farmers who invest in cooling technologies are less vulnerable to extreme weather.