CT-based radiomics to predict development of macrovascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter study

Background: Macrovascular invasion (MaVI) occurs in nearly half of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients at diagnosis or during follow-up, which causes severe disease deterioration, and limits the possibility of surgical approaches. This study aimed to investigate whether computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics analysis could help predict development of MaVI in HCC. Methods: A cohort of 226 patients diagnosed with HCC was enrolled from 5 hospitals with complete MaVI and prognosis follow-ups. CT-based radiomics signature was built via multi-strategy machine learning methods. Afterwards, MaVI-related clinical factors and radiomics signature were integrated to construct the final prediction model (CRIM, clinical-radiomics integrated model) via random forest modeling. Cox-regression analysis was used to select independent risk factors to predict the time of MaVI development. Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to stratify patients according to the time of MaVI development, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) based on the selected risk factors. Results: The radiomics signature showed significant improvement for MaVI prediction compared with conventional clinical/radiological predictors (P < 0.001). CRIM could predict MaVI with satisfactory areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.986 and 0.979 in the training (n = 154) and external validation (n = 72) datasets, respectively. CRIM presented with excellent generalization with AUC of 0.956, 1.0 00, and 1.00 0 in each external cohort that accepted disparate CT scanning protocol/manufactory. Peel9_fos_InterquartileRange [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.98; P < 0.001] was selected as the independent risk factor. The cox-regression model successfully stratified patients into the high-risk and low-risk groups regarding the time of MaVI development (P < 0.001), PFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P = 0.002). Conclusions: The CT-based quantitative radiomics analysis could enable high accuracy prediction of subsequent MaVI development in HCC with prognostic implications. (C) 2021 First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine in China. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

This study demonstrates that CT-based radiomics analysis can accurately predict the development of MaVI in HCC patients, providing valuable prognostic implications.