Drivers of Global Clear Sky Surface Downwelling Longwave Irradiance Trends From 1984 to 2017

Radiation changes at the Earth's surface alter climate, however, the causes of observed surface radiation changes are not precisely quantified globally. With complete global coverage by ERA-Interim, the drivers of the clear sky surface downwelling longwave irradiance (SDLI) trends from 1984 to 2017 are quantifiable everywhere. Trends in atmospheric temperature and water vapor contributed significantly (similar to 90%) to clear sky SDLI trends, including trends consistent with Arctic warming and Southern Ocean cooling. CO2 contributed similar to 10% and other greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O, CFC-11, and CFC-12) similar to 1% to the SDLI trends. These observation-based results are consistent with early CO2-doubling climate model calculations wherein temperature and water vapor changes drove similar to 90% of the SDLI change. The well-mixed greenhouse gases drive location-dependent SDLI trends that are strongest over regions with climatologically high temperatures and low water vapor amounts.

Automated summary

Radiation changes at the Earth's surface, particularly in clear skies, are mainly driven by trends in atmospheric temperature and water vapor, with lesser contributions from CO2 and other greenhouse gases. The impact of well-mixed greenhouse gases on surface radiation trends varies depending on regional climatic conditions.