Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Conducive to Severe Haze in Eastern China Have Shifted Under Climate Change

Regional atmospheric circulation patterns affect haze pollution and they change in the warming climate. Here, the characteristics of atmospheric circulation anomalies conducive to extreme haze occurrence in China and their historical and future trends are examined based on surface observations, reanalysis data, aerosol source tagging technique, and multimodel intercomparison results. December 2016 and 2017 are identified as the worst months of haze pollution over northern and southern China, featuring weakened and strengthened prevailing winds, respectively. During 1980-2019, the atmospheric pattern similar to December 2016 decreased, while that similar to 2017 increased, suggesting that severe haze formation mechanism in eastern China has been shifting from causes of local accumulation to regional transport processes. In the future, climate change under the sustainable and intermediate development scenarios are the ideal paths to reduce haze in China, while high social vulnerability and radiative forcing would cause a severe damage to the environment.

Automated summary

The study found that regional atmospheric circulation anomalies affect haze pollution in China, and these anomalies are expected to continue changing in the future. Over time, the mechanism for severe haze formation in China is shifting from local accumulation to regional transport processes.