A revisit to the past plague epidemic (India) versus the present COVID-19 pandemic: fractional-order chaotic models and fuzzy logic control

India is one of the worst hit regions by the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic and 'Black fungus' epidemic. This paper revisits the Bombay Plague epidemic of India and presents six fractional-order models (FOMs) of the epidemic based on observational data. The models reveal chaotic dispersion and interactive coupling between multiple species of rodents. Suitable controllers based on fuzzy logic concept are designed to stabilise chaos to an infection-free equilibrium as well as to synchronise a chaotic trajectory with a regular non-chaotic one so that the unpredictability dies out. An FOM of COVID-19 is also proposed that displays chaotic propagation similar to the plague models. The index of memory and heredity that characterise FOMs are found to be crucial parameters in understanding the progression of the epidemics, capture the behaviour of transmission more accurately and reveal enriched complex dynamics of periodic to chaotic evolution, which otherwise remain unobserved in the integral models. The theoretical analyses successfully validated by numerical simulations signify that the results of the past Plague epidemic can be a pathway to identify infected regions with the closest scenarios for the present second wave of Covid-19, forecast the course of the outbreak, and adopt necessary control measures to eliminate chaotic transmission of the pandemic.

Automated summary

This paper revisits the Bombay Plague epidemic of India and presents six fractional-order models of the epidemic based on observational data. Suitable controllers based on fuzzy logic concept are designed to stabilise chaos and forecast the course of the Covid-19 outbreak, with crucial parameters including memory and heredity indices.