期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
卷 56, 期 4, 页码 2699-2708出版社
AMER CHEMICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.1c04784
关键词
critical materials; byproduct metal; gallium-aluminum system; gallium supply risk; green transition; industrial ecology; system dynamics
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [42071276, 71991484, 71991482, 71633006]
- National Social Science Foundation of China [18ZDA061]
- Independent Research Fund Denmark (ReCAP)
- Villum Fonden through the Villum Center for the Science of Sustainable Fuels and Chemicals (V-SUSTAIN) [9455]
- MSCA-TUBITAK BIDEB 2236 Co-Funded Brain Circulation2 Scheme (CoCirculation2) [120C218]
- Innovation Project Foundation of Central South University [2021zzts0020]
- Postgraduate Research and Innovation Project Foundation of the Hunan Province of China [CX20210090]
- China Scholarship Council [202006370292]
The potential constraints of critical material supply for the global green transition have become a growing concern. Gallium, as an important green minor metal, faces supply risks due to its dependence on aluminum production and the potential impact of the end of primary aluminum production boom in China. Our study examines the gallium-aluminum dynamics and reveals the varying patterns of gallium supply and demand in different regions. The coordination of mitigation strategies from both supply and demand sides can alleviate the concerns on the gallium supply risk in China for a common green future.
The potential constraints of critical material supply for the global green transition have raised increasing concerns in recent years. As an important green minor metal, gallium faces such a potential supply risk for two reasons: it is a byproduct of aluminum production, and the forthcoming end of primary aluminum production boom in China, currently the main global aluminum producer, may bring substantial impacts on the global gallium supply. Here, we investigated this byproduct and host metal linkage using a system dynamics based integrated model and characterized the gallium-aluminum dynamics in a green transition up to 2050 across five world regions (i.e., China, the United States, the European Union, Japan, and the rest of the world). Our results reveal varying patterns of gallium demand and supply in different world regions and the significant role of the China factor in ensuring a sustainable gallium supply globally. However, the concerns on the gallium supply risk in China for a common green future could be relieved from the coordination of mitigation strategies from both supply (primary and secondary) and demand (e.g., process efficiency improvement and material intensity reduction) sides among all world regions. Our methodological integration of system dynamics, industrial ecology, and economic geology can be extended to other materials.
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