Future greenhouse gas emissions from metal production: gaps and opportunities towards climate goals

Climate change is an urgent global challenge, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from metal production contribute to a substantial part of total emissions. Metals play an essential role in human life, and their demand will increase with global population and economic growth. Therefore, projecting future GHG emissions associated with metal production and exploring effective measures to alleviate GHG emissions are essential for achieving climate goals. This study projects the future GHG emissions associated with the primary and secondary production of six metals (aluminum, copper, iron, lead, nickel, and zinc) by considering the detailed metal cycles according to the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Additionally, influential factors for GHG emissions in metal cycles are explored using decomposition and sensitivity analyses to reduce future GHG emissions. We show that future GHG emissions from metal production cannot be in line with the climate goal required to maintain the temperature change below 2 degrees C under any SSP, even though the trends for GHG emissions from metal production are significantly different among the SSPs. Therefore, substantial efforts to reduce GHG emissions are required in addition to the transition to the sustainable socio-economic pathway. From a short-term perspective, lowering the per capita in-use metal stock level and GHG emission intensity of metal production is crucial, especially in middle income groups. From a long-term perspective, improving the recycling rate is a possible step after sufficient in-use metal stocks are accumulated for recycling. To achieve the climate goals for both short- and long-term GHG reductions in metal cycles, a combination of actions on these influential factors without delay is essential.

Automated summary

This study predicts future greenhouse gas emissions related to the production of six metals by considering the metal cycles according to shared socio-economic pathways. It is found that even though trends for GHG emissions from metal production vary significantly among different SSPs, they cannot meet the climate goal of maintaining temperature change below 2 degrees C. Therefore, immediate actions to reduce GHG emissions are necessary.