Cost-benefit analysis of gasoline demand control policies and its greenhouse gas mitigation co-benefits

Policy-making about gasoline in Iran has always been challenging. A LEAP model was developed through the below steps: identifying the components of the supply and demand for gasoline in Iran, gathering needed data energy-environmental modeling, designing the structure of gasoline demand and modeling the gasoline demand in Iran, planning the refining and supplying the petroleum products and entering the model data, deigning the reference scenario and validation of the model, planning, modeling, and running of the possible gasoline demand reduction scenarios in Iran. In this study, different non-price and price measures to decrease the gasoline demand in Iran are assessed based on cost-benefit analysis. With the current outlook, the price does not seem to be rising easily. Implementing each of these two scenarios will reduce greenhouse gases, respectively, by 16.93 and 24.96 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents in 2035 compared to the baseline. With every (sic)1 increase per cubic meter of actual natural gas price, the Net Present Value (NPV) and cost of GHG reduction under the scenario of simultaneous implementation of price measures is expected to reduce by respectively US$ 0.04 billion and US$ 0.36 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent, respectively. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

Policy-making about gasoline in Iran has always been challenging. A LEAP model was developed to assess different measures to decrease gasoline demand in Iran. Implementing these measures can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve cost-benefit analysis.