Applying a Model of Technology Diffusion to Quantify the Potential Benefit of Improved Energy Efficiency in Data Centres

Data centres are a key infrastructure for the global digital economy, helping enable the EU Digital Decade by 2030. In 2015, data centres were estimated to consume 2.5% of EU electricity demand. In Ireland, the concentrated presence of data centres could consume 37% of national electricity demand by 2028. The uncertainty of data centre facility-level energy efficiency paired with the need to achieve a low-carbon economy pose significant challenge for generation and transmission network planning. This is the first paper to apply a model of technology diffusion with a national forecast of changes in Irish data centre electricity demand through more efficient liquid cooling. The methodology serves as a technology-agnostic resource for practitioners performing forecasts under uncertainty with limited information. Results suggest that technology adoption could lower national electricity demand by 0.81% if adopted by new plant from 2019 to 2028. Savings rise to 3.16% over the same period if adopted by new and existing data centres. Adoption would also lower related emissions by 4.70% and 23.04% over the same period across both scenarios, respectively. Results highlight substantial potential electricity and associated emissions savings available in the sector and suggest policy options to support a transition towards a low-carbon economy.

Automated summary

Data centers play a crucial role in the global digital economy and the EU Digital Decade goals by 2030. The concentration of data centers in Ireland could pose a significant challenge to national electricity demand, but adopting new liquid cooling technologies could lead to potential savings in electricity demand and emissions, highlighting the importance of policy support for a transition towards a low-carbon economy.