Understanding the Role of Humanistic Factors in Trade Network Evolution across the Belt and Road Initiative Countries Using the Exponential Random Graph Model

Humanistic factors have been playing increasingly significant roles in international trade. Recently, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China has drawn worldwide attention. This paper examines the roles of humanistic factors in international trade networks across the BRI countries. Firstly, we analyzed the structural characteristics of the import trade network across the 61 BRI countries and subsequently adopted the cross-sectional exponential random graph model (ERGM) and temporal ERGM to analyze the role of different humanistic factors in the evolution of import trade network from the static and dynamic perspectives, respectively. The results show the following: (I) the network scale of the import trade across the BRI countries has been expanding, the network density of the trade has been increasing gradually, and the small-world characteristics of import network are gradually revealed; (II) all of the factors such as a common (official or spoken) language, a common legal origin, a common religious belief, and ever sibling relationship help the BRI countries establish closer import trade ties; and (III) the differences of trade liberalization and financial liberalization, gross domestic product (GDP), and population in different countries also contribute to the evolution of import trade network among the BRI countries, and the countries with relatively higher GDP and greater population are more active in the import trade network.

Automated summary

This paper examines the roles of humanistic factors in international trade networks across the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. The results show that the import trade network across these countries is expanding with increasing network density and small-world characteristics. Factors such as a common language, legal origin, religious belief, and sibling relationships contribute to closer import trade ties among BRI countries. Countries with higher GDP and larger population are more active in the import trade network.