Optimal cutoff values of primary tumour size to better predict long-term outcomes in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma undergoing total thyroidectomy: A preliminary study using restricted cubic spline analysis

Objective Primary tumour size (PTS) is known to be a significant prognostic factor in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) undergoing thyroidectomy. Although cutoff values of 2 and 4 cm are widely used in surgical extent decision and long-term outcomes predictions, the effectiveness of arbitrary cutoff values in stratifying patients for target outcomes is questionable. This study aimed to determine new optimal cutoffs of PTS. Design, Patient And Measurements Patients (n = 529) with PTC who underwent total thyroidectomy were retrospectively reviewed. After risk factor analysis for structural recurrence, the optimal cutoffs of PTS were automatically calculated using restricted cubic spline analysis and X-tile software. Subgroups were classified based on the newly determined cutoff values. Both the recurrence-free survival (RFS) and the proportion of patients in each response-to-therapy category, using the dynamic risk stratification system (DRS), were compared between the subgroups. Results PTS was confirmed as an independent risk factor for structural recurrence. The optimal cutoff values were calculated as 1.4 and 3.0 cm. The subgroups stratified using these newly determined cutoffs showed significantly different RFS and DRS based on the response to initial therapy, but the subgroups classified using the cutoffs of 2 and 4 cm did not. Conclusions The newly determined cutoff values of PTS may be useful in better stratifying patients with PTC undergoing thyroidectomy for target outcomes and can be considered as a new definition in staging and risk stratification systems.

Automated summary

The study determined new optimal cutoff values for PTS as 1.4 and 3.0 cm, which significantly stratified patients with PTC for target outcomes. Subgroups classified using these newly determined cutoff values showed significantly different recurrence-free survival and response-to-therapy categories compared to subgroups classified using the cutoff values of 2 and 4 cm.