Model-Based Characterization of the Bidirectional Interaction Between Pharmacokinetics and Tumor Growth Dynamics in Patients with Metastatic Merkel Cell Carcinoma Treated with Avelumab

Purpose: Empirical time-varying clearance models have been reported for several immune checkpoint inhibitors, including avelumab (anti-programmed death ligand 1). To investigate the exposure response relationship for avelumab, we explored semimechanistic pharmacokinetic (PK)-tumor growth dynamics (TGD) models. Patients and Methods: Plasma PK data were pooled from three phase I and II trials (JAVELIN Merkel 200, JAVELIN Solid Tumor, and JAVELIN Solid Tumor JPN); tumor size (TS) data were collected from patients with metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma (mMCC) enrolled in JAVELIN Merkel 200. A PK model was developed first, followed by TGD modeling to investigate interactions between avelumab exposure and TGD. A PK-TGD feedback loop was evaluated with simultaneous fitting of the PK and TGD models. Results: In total, 1,835 PK observations and 338 TS observations were collected from 147 patients. In the final PK-TGD model, which included the bidirectional relationship between PK and TGD, avelumab PK was described by a two-compartment model with a positive association between clearance and longitudinal TS, with no additional empirical time-varying clearance identified. TGD was described by first-order tumor growth/shrinkage rates, with the tumor shrinkage rate decreasing exponentially over time; the exponential time-decay constant decreased with increasing drug concentration, representing the treatment effect through tumor shrinkage inhibition. Conclusions: We developed a TGD model that mechanistically captures the prevention of loss of antitumor immunity (i.e., T-cell suppression in the tumor microenvironment) by avelumab, and a bidirectional interaction between PK and TGD in patients with mMCC treated with avelumab, thus mechanistically describing previously reported time variance of avelumab elimination.

Automated summary

This study developed a semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-tumor growth dynamics model to investigate the exposure response relationship for avelumab and the interaction between PK and TGD. The PK of avelumab was described by a two-compartment model with a positive association between clearance and tumor size, without additional time-varying clearance identified. TGD was described by first-order tumor growth/shrinkage rates, with the tumor shrinkage rate decreasing exponentially over time and negatively correlated with drug concentration.