Slope system stability reliability analysis with multi-parameters using generalized probability density evolution method

Reliability analysis provides a more effective method for slope stability evaluations and design because it can reflect the uncertainties of slopes. In this study, a generalized probability density evolution method (GPDEM) is proposed to evaluate the system stability reliability of multi-parameters complex slopes. This method is completely different with the traditional random reliability analytical method, which can combine a set of stochastic analysis and currently advanced deterministic slope stability analysis method using finite element method. The proposed method has great adaptability to complex slope cases with implicit perform functions and multiple parametric variables, and can directly reflect the reliability. In addition, a newly Galerkin finite element method based on Streamline-Upwind/Petrov-Galerkin (SUPG) scheme is proposed for the numerical solution of the GPDEM to increase the convergence rates. Several representative study cases of slope system reliability analysis are selected to certify the high precision and validity of GPDEM over the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and other simulation methods. The results demonstrate the novel method is promising for geotechnical engineering in terms of precision and efficiency, and can be used to analyze the failure probability of large and complex geotechnical engineering structures.

Automated summary

A novel generalized probability density evolution method (GPDEM) is proposed for evaluating the system stability reliability of multi-parameters complex slopes. The method combines stochastic analysis and finite element method, showing high adaptability to complex slope cases and direct reflection of reliability. The results demonstrate the promising precision and efficiency of the novel method in geotechnical engineering.