期刊
BMC PSYCHIATRY
卷 22, 期 1, 页码 -出版社
BMC
DOI: 10.1186/s12888-022-03702-y
关键词
suicide; machine learning; prediction; primary prevention; secondary prevention
类别
资金
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Saskatchewan
- Saskatchewan Health Research Foundation
- Royal University Hospital Foundation Community Mental Health Fund
- Google Cloud Platform
- Compute Canada
This study utilizes machine learning models to identify risk and protective factors for suicide deaths in the general population and clinical samples. It suggests that suicide prevention requires individual actions with governmental incentives, and machine learning can help identify early prevention targets.
Background Machine learning (ML) is increasingly used to predict suicide deaths but their value for suicide prevention has not been established. Our first objective was to identify risk and protective factors in a general population. Our second objective was to identify factors indicating imminent suicide risk. Methods We used survival and ML models to identify lifetime predictors using the Cohort of Norway (n=173,275) and hospital diagnoses in a Saskatoon clinical sample (n=12,614). The mean follow-up times were 17 years and 3 years for the Cohort of Norway and Saskatoon respectively. People in the clinical sample had a longitudinal record of hospital visits grouped in six-month intervals. We developed models in a training set and these models predicted survival probabilities in held-out test data. Results In the general population, we found that a higher proportion of low-income residents in a county, mood symptoms, and daily smoking increased the risk of dying from suicide in both genders. In the clinical sample, the only predictors identified were male gender and older age. Conclusion Suicide prevention probably requires individual actions with governmental incentives. The prediction of imminent suicide remains highly challenging, but machine learning can identify early prevention targets.
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