The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and the Rise of Italian Fascism: A Cross-City Quantitative and Historical Text Qualitative Analysis

Evidence linking past experiences of worsening health with support for radical political views has generated concerns about the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The influenza pandemic that began in 1918 had a devastating health impact: 4.1 million Italians contracted influenza and about 500 000 died. We tested the hypothesis that deaths from the 1918 influenza pandemic contributed to the rise of Fascism in Italy. To provide a thicker interpretation of these patterns, we applied historical text mining to the newspaper II Popolo d'Italia (Mussolini's newspaper). Our observations were consistent with evidence from other contexts that worsening mortality rates can fuel radical politics. Unequal impacts of pandemics may contribute to political polarization.

Automated summary

The evidence linking past health deterioration and support for radical political views has raised concerns about the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The devastating impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic, with 4.1 million Italians contracting influenza and about 500,000 deaths, may have contributed to the rise of Fascism in Italy. Historical text mining of Mussolini's newspaper provided further support for the belief that worsening mortality rates can fuel radical politics, while the unequal impacts of pandemics may contribute to political polarization.