Climate change impact on water resources availability: case study of the Llobregat River basin (Spain)

Climate change may have significant consequences for water resources availability and management at the basin scale. This is particularly true for areas already suffering from water stress, such as the Mediterranean area. This work focused on studying these impacts in the Llobregat basin supplying the Barcelona region. Several climate projections, adapted to the spatiotemporal resolution of the study, were combined with a daily hydrological model to estimate future water availability. Depending on the scenario and the time period, different assessment indicators such as reliability and resilience showed a future decrease in water resources (up to 40%), with drought periods becoming more frequent. An additional uncertainty analysis showed the high variability of the results (annual water availability ranging from 147 hm(3)/year to 274 hm(3)/year), thus making accurate projections difficult. Finally, the study illustrates how climate change could be taken into account to provide adaptive measures for the future.